Why there is a matcha shortage

What is actually in short supply

Not matcha in general. What is scarce is tencha, the shade-grown, de-stemmed leaf matcha is ground from, and particularly first-harvest tencha from the established regions. Tencha is a specialist crop: it needs shading structures, a tencha furnace rather than a rolling line, and refining equipment that separates stems and veins. A grower with a sencha field cannot switch to tencha for a single season the way a farmer might switch vegetable crops.

That bottleneck is why the shortage has been so uneven. Culinary and ingredient powder has mostly stayed available, while the top of the market, the first-harvest tins from named producers, is the part that sells out.

How much have tencha prices risen

The clearest public marker is the Kyoto tencha auction. At the first tencha auction of 2025, held in May, the average price reached about 8,235 yen per kilogram, roughly 1.7 times the previous year's average and well above the previous record of about 4,862 yen per kilogram set in 2016, as reported by the Global Japanese Tea Association. Premium Uji lots cleared far higher again.

Reporting on the 2026 season is less consistent. Trade sources describe opening auctions above 2025 levels and quote a wide spread of figures, and we have not seen an official aggregate we would treat as settled, so any single 2026 number should be read as provisional. What is not in dispute is the direction: shaded-leaf prices have moved to a level the industry does not expect to unwind quickly.

Why can growers not simply plant more

Because tea is a perennial crop farmed by an ageing workforce, and neither problem responds to one good year of prices.

• A newly planted tea field takes about five years before it can be harvested properly, so any response to 2025 prices arrives around 2030.
• Japan's tea-growing workforce is old. The average grower is commonly reported at around 65, with most of the rest past retirement age and few young entrants replacing them.
• Land is leaving production rather than entering it. Nikkei Asia reported in February 2026 that the harvesting area in the major producing prefectures had fallen 29 per cent over a decade.
• Converting a sencha field to tencha needs shading structures, a tencha furnace and refining machinery, and processing machinery has itself been reported in short supply.
• Climate volatility, spring frosts and heat stress add year-to-year risk on top of the structural squeeze.

Why is demand rising so fast

Matcha stopped being a Japanese specialty and became a global cafe drink, largely through social media, and the export figures show it. Nikkei Asia reported that Japan's green tea exports by value rose 98 per cent in 2025 to a record high, and other reporting puts the calendar-2025 export value near 72 billion yen with volume passing 10,000 tonnes for the first time in roughly seven decades. Figures differ between fiscal-year and calendar-year series, so the exact number depends on which is quoted, but every series points the same way.

Japan is responding where it can. Shizuoka, the country's largest tea prefecture and historically a sencha stronghold, has publicly shifted focus toward tencha, and subsidies have encouraged growers elsewhere to make the same conversion. Kagoshima has expanded fastest. None of it changes the five-year clock.

Why are shoppers limited to one tin in Japan

Because the famous Kyoto houses ran out. Marukyu Koyamaen and Ippodo, two of the best-known Uji producers, introduced quantity limits on matcha purchases for the first time, and Marukyu Koyamaen has published a standing notice explaining that limits apply across its matcha range so stock reaches as many customers as possible. Caps of one or two items per customer have since become normal at specialty shops in Kyoto and Tokyo, with resale onto online marketplaces at marked-up prices a recurring complaint from vendors.

For visitors this reads as a queueing story. For the industry it is a rationing mechanism, and it is the clearest sign that the shortage sits at the top of the quality range rather than across the whole category.

What does the shortage mean for matcha prices in New Zealand

New Zealand sits at the end of the chain. Our brands import Japanese matcha, so Japanese auction prices, the yen and freight all reach us with a lag of months rather than weeks. What we can measure directly is the shelf price, and we do, weekly.

As at 5 August 2026, across the 26 retail-size pure matcha products we track in New Zealand the middle half of the market sat between about $0.83 and $1.22 per gram, with a median near $0.98. Tins the sellers describe as ceremonial grade ran roughly $0.50 to $1.23 per gram. Sweetened latte blends sell far below that band, but they are not comparable matcha, because the powder is a minor ingredient in the pack, so we rank them separately. We have snapshotted these prices weekly since August 2026 and keep the full history, so the trend rather than any single week is the number worth watching.

Expect the pressure to show first at the ceremonial end, where first-harvest leaf is what is scarce, and to arrive as smaller tins and quiet reformulation as often as a bigger number on the shelf.

• Matcha prices in NZ compared: our weekly NZ price dataset, every product dated and linked to the seller

What should NZ buyers do about it

Nothing dramatic. Matcha is not about to vanish from New Zealand shelves, and stockpiling is the one response that reliably backfires, because matcha fades within a couple of months of opening and loses colour and aroma steadily even sealed.

• Buy the grade you actually use. If it goes into a latte, culinary grade is the sensible purchase and the part of the market least affected.
• Buy small and often. A 30 g tin finished fresh beats a 100 g tin that goes dull, whatever it cost per gram.
• Check the harvest or best-before date, because scarcity keeps older stock on shelves longer than it used to.
• Compare per gram rather than per tin, since pack sizes have been shrinking faster than prices have been rising.
• Treat second-harvest and Kagoshima or Shizuoka matcha as a real option rather than a downgrade. That is where the new supply is coming from.

Common questions

Why is there a matcha shortage?

Global demand for matcha has grown much faster than Japan can grow tencha, the shade-grown leaf it is ground from. Tea-growing area and the farming workforce are both shrinking, a new field takes about five years to produce, and converting sencha fields to tencha needs shading structures and specialised machinery.

How long will the matcha shortage last?

Longer than one season. Because new shaded fields take around five years to come into production, the industry generally expects tight supply and elevated prices to persist for several years, even as Kagoshima and Shizuoka expand tencha output. Published forecasts vary, so treat any specific end date as speculation.

Why is matcha limited to one tin per person in Japan?

Leading Kyoto producers including Marukyu Koyamaen and Ippodo introduced purchase limits when demand outstripped what they could mill, so that stock reaches more customers. Caps of one or two items per person are now common at specialty tea shops in Kyoto and Tokyo, partly to discourage bulk buying for resale.

Is matcha getting more expensive in New Zealand?

Yes, and the pressure is concentrated at the ceremonial end. As at 5 August 2026 the middle half of the pure retail matcha we track in NZ sat between about $0.83 and $1.22 per gram, with ceremonial-labelled tins roughly $0.50 to $1.23 per gram. We refresh those prices weekly on the prices page and keep the history.